Status and Tasks of Special Supply Subscription System
Publication Date 2025-04-24
Researchers Youn-Kyoung Hur, Sung-Hwan KIM
❍ (Purpose) Compared to its social importance related to the housing subscription system, there are not many studies based on empirical analysis. This study aims to understand the actual operational status of the special supply housing subscription system based on empirical data, and based on this, seek long-term directions for institutional efficiency.
Analyzed the subscription data of 1,853 complexes and approximately 900,000 households from 'Subscription Home' from January 2020 to June 2024.
❍ (Purpose) Compared to its social importance related to the housing subscription system, there are not many studies based on empirical analysis. This study aims to understand the actual operational status of the special supply housing subscription system based on empirical data, and based on this, seek long-term directions for institutional efficiency.
Analyzed the subscription data of 1,853 complexes and approximately 900,000 households from 'Subscription Home' from January 2020 to June 2024.
❍ (Volume) Initially, 49.0% of total housing sales are allocated as special supply, but because there are many cases where volumes are converted to general supply due to a lack of applicants, the actual special supply delivered to real consumers accounts for 28.5% of total sales.
For 12.9% of the special supply apartment sizes, there were zero applicants, leading to the entire allocated volume being converted to general supply.
Within the special supply, 73.7% is allocated as a broad response to the low birth rate (multi-child families, newlyweds, first-time homebuyers, and newborns).
For 12.9% of the special supply apartment sizes, there were zero applicants, leading to the entire allocated volume being converted to general supply.
Within the special supply, 73.7% is allocated as a broad response to the low birth rate (multi-child families, newlyweds, first-time homebuyers, and newborns).
❍ (Type·Region) Even within the special supply, demand differences vary heavily by type and region, and there is a stark gap in subscription competition rates between special supply and general supply even for the identical apartment size.
Analysis shows that half of the allocated special supply volume had no applicants. In particular, special supply for multi-child families (73.0%), institutional recommendations (62.5%), and supporting elderly parents (61.6%) exceeded 60%, failing to find applicants.
Nevertheless, Seoul and Sejong recorded double-digit subscription competition rates for special supply, confirming concentrated demand, which is interpreted as a result of asset allocation expectations driven by the application of the price cap system on new apartments.
There is a major discrepancy in competition rates for the identical apartment size. Only 19.2% of the special supply sizes faced competition, whereas 76.7% of the general supply sizes are in competitive situations.
Analysis shows that half of the allocated special supply volume had no applicants. In particular, special supply for multi-child families (73.0%), institutional recommendations (62.5%), and supporting elderly parents (61.6%) exceeded 60%, failing to find applicants.
Nevertheless, Seoul and Sejong recorded double-digit subscription competition rates for special supply, confirming concentrated demand, which is interpreted as a result of asset allocation expectations driven by the application of the price cap system on new apartments.
There is a major discrepancy in competition rates for the identical apartment size. Only 19.2% of the special supply sizes faced competition, whereas 76.7% of the general supply sizes are in competitive situations.
❍ (Direction) As demand discrepancies by region and product type continue to widen, it may undermine the operational efficiency of the subscription system, which is a new housing sales system, thus requiring improvements.
Unfulfilled special supply volume gets converted to general supply, and until now, the housing sales market has maintained an excess demand market regardless of region or type, not causing serious problems in the housing market. However, as market conditions are changing rapidly, it is now time to optimize the efficiency of the system.
Unfulfilled special supply volume gets converted to general supply, and until now, the housing sales market has maintained an excess demand market regardless of region or type, not causing serious problems in the housing market. However, as market conditions are changing rapidly, it is now time to optimize the efficiency of the system.
❍ (Short-term) The gap between special supply allocation and actual supply must be bridged, requiring a realignment of volume by type and region.
Policy target volumes need to be reset by verifying demand across public, private, regions (whether subject to the price cap system), and types. Urgently, a realignment between "first-time homebuyers/newlyweds" volume and "multi-child families/institutional recommendations" volume must be reviewed.
Policy target volumes need to be reset by verifying demand across public, private, regions (whether subject to the price cap system), and types. Urgently, a realignment between "first-time homebuyers/newlyweds" volume and "multi-child families/institutional recommendations" volume must be reviewed.
❍ (Long-term) It is necessary to examine the policy effectiveness of special supply, such as its response to low birth rates, introduce post-sale management concepts in areas subject to the price cap system, and consider expanding autonomy in the private sector.
Although the special supply system has been ongoing for about 50 years since 1978, its effectiveness has not been verified. Policy effectiveness verification work is needed by observing behaviors such as the residency period of special supply recipients, whether they give birth to children, and resale prices.
The UK's First Homes regulates the sales price of property to perform post-sale management after distribution. We should also seek post-sale management measures for sales in areas subject to the price cap system to ponder ways to increase the effectiveness of asset distribution policies and maintain affordable housing inventory.
Because the subscription system is interlocked with various systems such as subscription savings accounts, National Housing Bonds, and the Housing Urban Fund, establishing a long-term roadmap is required to improve the housing sales system.
Although the special supply system has been ongoing for about 50 years since 1978, its effectiveness has not been verified. Policy effectiveness verification work is needed by observing behaviors such as the residency period of special supply recipients, whether they give birth to children, and resale prices.
The UK's First Homes regulates the sales price of property to perform post-sale management after distribution. We should also seek post-sale management measures for sales in areas subject to the price cap system to ponder ways to increase the effectiveness of asset distribution policies and maintain affordable housing inventory.
Because the subscription system is interlocked with various systems such as subscription savings accounts, National Housing Bonds, and the Housing Urban Fund, establishing a long-term roadmap is required to improve the housing sales system.