Aging S. Korea's Policy Direction of SOC Investment
Publication Date 2024-06-18
Researchers KeunYong Eom
● With Korea entering an aging society where the vitality of society is declining due to a decline in the fertility rate and an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, it is expected to enter an ultra-aged society next year
Local small and medium-sized cities overlap with population outflows, and the risk of regional extinction is increasing.
● Amid the rapid supply and aging of Korea's infrastructure in the 1970s, extreme climate changes such as heavy rains and heat waves also increase due to global warming, increasing the risk to facilities.
- Facilities older than 30 years from 2028 are expected to exceed 40% of all facilities
● Although the size of Korea's economy has continued to expand, low growth and low national competitiveness have continued recently, and public happiness is also low.
● Both the United States and Europe have recently expanded infrastructure investment, and in common, they promote people's safety and economic growth through infrastructure investment.
● Infrastructure investment has proven various investment effects such as economic ripple, job creation, and income distribution in many domestic and foreign literatures, and the United States recently emphasized the effectiveness of infrastructure investment once again in the Presidential Economic Advisory Organization (CEA).
- In the 2016 Economic Report of the President, the U.S. Presidential Economic Advisory Organization analyzes that raw material purchases and labor demand increase in the short term, and in the mid- to long-term, the overall productivity of the economy and the potential economic growth rate increase
- The European Investment Bank analyzes that infrastructure investment has increased because modern, properly functioning infrastructure is critical to national competitiveness and economic growth and provides social benefits for many years
● SOC was continuously supplied, but Korea's SOC stock is not much compared to major advanced countries.
- As of 2018, the SOC capital stock, which combines Korea's land facilities (road, rail, etc.) and aviation facilities, is 21.5% of GDP, lower than France (31.3%), Germany (28.7%), and the United States (22.0%), and is more than 5%p lower than France and Germany
● While Korea's SOC fiscal investment has repeatedly increased and plummeted, it is far below the level of 2010 when real prices are converted considering price levels, and the future investment is not large.
● Meanwhile, the appropriate SOC investment in 2025 considering economic growth and inflation is expected to be KRW 58 trillion to KRW 60 trillion, and the central government's SOC investment is expected to be KRW 0.6 trillion to KRW 2.1 trillion short.
- The size of SOC investment in 2025 (central government + local government + private investment + public corporation investment) is 54.7 trillion won, 0.6 trillion won to 2.1 trillion won short of 58.0 trillion won to 60.0 trillion won to achieve the economic growth rate
● Public construction investment centered on disaster and disaster-related facilities and aging infrastructure that can cause human damage is more important than ever to cope with aging in Korea, such as low birth rate, aging, regional extinction, and decline in national competitiveness.
- While central and local governments need to expand SOC investment, incentives are needed to expand private SOC investment that can be partially supplemented