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Construction 2040 Outlook

Publication Date 2025-08-19

Researchers Cheol-Han Park , Ji-Hye Lee, Kyoung-Youn Na

□ The Korea Institute of Construction Industry (Director Lee Choong-jae) predicted on the 18th that domestic construction orders will expand from 193.3 trillion won in 2025 to 304.7 trillion won in 2040.

- The forecast was derived by comprehensively analyzing economic growth rate, demographic change, and social variables, and compared and analyzed the annual average growth rate (CAGR) for the past (2010-2025) and the future (2025-2040) period for 12 detailed types of industries.


□ The report was planned as part of the "Rebirth Study of the Construction Industry," which seeks long-term visions and re-leap strategies for the construction industry.

- Based on construction orders, the future construction market by 2040 was projected from a mid- to long-term perspective at a time when the fundamental value of the industry and the full-scale transformation of the production system were required. Through this, it was intended to share the necessity of preemptive response to future changes in the social, economic, and technological environment with both construction participants and stakeholders.



□ The Korea Development Institute cited ▲ large-scale national projects ▲ expansion of smart and digital construction ▲ expansion of demand for eco-friendly and carbon-neutral infrastructure as major factors driving future growth in the construction industry.

- This study presents the results of forecasting the order size for all construction projects in the construction industry by construction type (Daegong type and detailed construction type) and period from 2025 to 2040, and along with these forecast results, provides changes in construction orders and major factors.

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Trends in construction site technical manpower change and ways to secure it

Publication Date 2025-07-14

Researchers Yoo-Kyung Sung , Hee-Dae Park, Soo-Young Choe

The construction industry's workforce structure and technology environment are changing differently from the past, and in this study, the construction industry's technical manpower problem was approached as a long-term task to respond to changes in the industrial structure and future environment, not a short-term labor supply and demand imbalance.

Therefore, this study established a strategy to secure construction talent to lead the future amid changes in the construction industry, and derived an implementation task to secure technical manpower in the construction site. The detailed objectives of this study are as follows.

First, it understands the actual condition of technical manpower in construction sites. The current status of the manpower shortage that is continuously raised in the industry is confirmed in detail, and in particular, it investigates areas where the shortage of technical manpower in construction sites is intensifying.

Second, it analyzes various factors that may affect the future construction site technical manpower problem. In addition to the poor working conditions that have been mainly pointed out, understand the background that has caused the shortage of manpower.

Third, in order to solve the problem of technical manpower in construction sites, we propose an implementation task that the construction industry can take the lead in. Through this, it is intended to reduce dependence on government policies and create a manpower ecosystem that prepares the future of the construction industry with the industry as the center.



- This study conducted the following analysis to derive strategies and execution tasks.

Through the analysis of existing research (Chapter 2) and the analysis of future issues (Chapter 3), the factors affecting the current status of technical personnel at construction sites were analyzed.

Quantitative analysis was performed through the supply and demand analysis of construction technical personnel (Chapter 4) and the actual condition survey of technical personnel at construction sites (Chapter 5).

Other industries' responses to future issues (Chapter 3) and major foreign countries' responses (Chapter 6) were investigated, and through this, strategies for securing construction talent and implementation tasks (Chapter 7) for securing technical personnel at construction sites were presented.

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Nature Positive Management for Biodiversity Conservation of Construction Companies

Publication Date 2025-04-25

Researchers Hong-Il Lee

To preserve biodiversity, which has recently emerged as a key task in ESG management, a five-step promotion model for "Nature Positive Management" that construction companies can introduce is presented

- The model was developed by comprehensively analyzing global standards and guidelines, major domestic and foreign construction companies, and systematically analyzing detailed activities, procedures, and implementation methods for each step

Biodiversity is a concept that encompasses species, genes, and ecosystem diversity, and Nature Positive means conserving and restoring damaged natural capital, that is, biodiversity and natural resources to stop net loss and convert to net positive

Propose a five-stage model of Nature Positive Management that should be introduced by construction companies as follows

① Establish mid- to long-term objectives and roadmaps

② Establishing an organizational system to achieve goals

③ Establishment and implementation of activity plan

④ Performance measurement and feedback

⑤ Enhance external disclosure and transparency

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Construction Industry Rebirth Strategy (Appendix: Detailed Tasks for the Great Transformation of Construction Industry)

Publication Date 2025-04-11

Researchers

PART 1. Transformation of the Industrial System

A Direction of Unfair Improvement for Co-prosperity and Co-prosperity in Construction Industry

A long time ago, but a task to be solved, proper air conditioning and construction cost realization

Excessive construction regulatory reforms that place importance on individual values and easy policy objectives, and restrict the industry

Changes in the Future Construction Industry and Industrial Structure for the Realization of Convergence and Expansion

SOC Investment for Safe and Sustainable Korea

Revitalization of Private Investment Projects Complementing Fiscal Investment

Need to Change Paradigm to Strengthen Global Competitiveness in Overseas Construction Industry with 60 Years of History

A 考 on Smart Construction Technology Revitalization and a Reasonable Direction

A Rational Research and Development (R&D) Direction for the Advancement of Construction Technology

Advancement of Public Procurement for Innovation in Construction Industry

Evaluation and Improvement of Human Resources Development Policy in Construction Industry

Negative image and deterioration of awareness threatens sustainability, innovative change and long-term approach required

Establishment of an advanced construction safety culture through the establishment of a cooperative safety management system





PART 2. Market and product conversion

Paradigm Shift in Housing Market, Product Innovation and Evolution of Construction Industry

Urban Space Redesignation and Market Products Transformation Strategy

Construction Finance Structural Innovation and Sustainability Challenges

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Construction Industry Rebirth Strategy

Publication Date 2025-03-18

Researchers CERIK

Beyond simple civil engineering, the construction industry is an important infrastructure industry that supports the national economy, forms the basic environment of society, and determines the quality of life of its people. However, in the face of unprecedented crises and changes, the construction industry is at a critical turning point in designing values and sustainable futures for the new era.



In response, the Korea Institute of Construction Industry has published Reinventing the Construction Industry: Rebirth Strategy. The report contains strategies and systems to shift away from the existing growth model to value-oriented industries, secure sustainability, and revive the construction industry in a new paradigm.

The challenges and crises facing the construction industry today are complex. Structural problems such as low growth, shrinking real estate market, stagnant technological innovation, labor shortage, and falling productivity, as well as huge trends such as digital transformation, eco-friendly paradigms, ESG management, and demographic changes are reshaping the entire industry. It is no longer an era in which traditional methods alone cannot guarantee sustainable growth.

Amid these changes, the direction of the construction industry is very clear. It is a transition from simple survival to a national future industry that focuses on social values and sustainability. Based on the vision of a "national industry that builds the people's future," the construction industry's re-leap strategy focuses on the four major goals (Responsible: Responsible, Revolutionary: Pursuing Innovation, Reliable: Trusted Enterprise, Resilient: Leap) and the three principles (Fair and Coexistence, Convergence and Expansion, Autonomy and Innovation).

First, re-establishing industrial value - The construction industry should shift from a simple construction industry to one that puts people first. Not only technology and capital, but also the value of people should be the center of the industry. For this, it is essential to cultivate skilled manpower, improve working environment, and establish a fair and safe industrial culture.

Second, a major transformation of the production system - improvement of existing disconnected construction processes and establishment of a production system that strengthens connectivity and cooperation. It is necessary to create an environment where various actors can collaborate smoothly while improving excessive regulation and unfair factors. Through this, it is necessary to form an industrial structure incorporating high-tech technologies to increase productivity and efficiency.

Third, innovation in the construction market and products - we need to shift the paradigm of construction products and services by shifting to a consumer-oriented mindset. We need to actively introduce sustainable construction technology and combine digital technology with smart construction systems to strengthen our global competitiveness. Through this, the construction industry should establish itself as an industry that realizes a smarter and more sustainable society.

The rebirth of the construction industry is not just an innovation, but a process of transformation that fundamentally redesigns the industry based on new principles and philosophy. To realize this, the government and the private sector must establish governance in cooperation and support research and policy implementation.

The Korea Construction Industry Research Institute will do its best to establish the construction industry as a value-oriented sustainable industry in this journey of change. We will actively work with various stakeholders such as the government, local governments, and industry-academic associations to make the construction industry leap forward as a core industry that creates the future.

We hope that Strategy for the Rebirth and Innovation of the Construction Industry will provide meaningful insights and practical solutions to all those who are overcoming the current crisis and contemplating the future of the construction industry.


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Experiences and implications of Newstay and public-supported private rental housing

Publication Date 2024-12-30

Researchers Youn-Kyoung Hur

News Stay and Public-supported private rental housing initiatives have laid the groundwork for corporate private rental housing supply. However, these programs faced significant challenges during implementation. Despite being long-term projects, they experienced frequent changes in policy models, funding structures, financing terms, and tax regulations. These rapid shifts increased market participation risks and eroded trust among stakeholders.Both programs set ambitious annual supply targets of over 30,000 units. However, actual performance fell short, with less than 10,000 units delivered per year. This failure to meet expectations hindered business activation.

 The government's new focus on long-term private rental housing (20+ years) should prioritize creating a successful model over meeting quantity targets. This shift requires developing and operating a viable business model. While public obligations and incentives vary, the 20-year model is consistently longer than previous programs.Investment fund liquidity is crucial. Recent policy changes allowing loan refinancing and relaxing standards for collateralized loans and REIT stock transfers are beneficial. Further exploration of conditions to enhance investment fund liquidity and reduce long-term investment burdens is necessary.Securing market trust through stable exits from initial News Stay projects is critical for promoting future private rental policies. However, proposed retroactive regulations on preferential sales and pre-sale conversion prices threaten profitability and violate principles against retroactive legislation.

 Such regulatory friction could undermine market trust and impede new ventures.Guaranteed exits based on initial agreements are essential for maintaining investor confidence. To balance investor rights and rental housing stock maintenance, alternative exit strategies like extended sale periods or conversion to listed REITs should be considered.The unfair allocation of National Housing and Urban Fund resources without corresponding profit responsibility should be addressed and removed from new public offering regulations. Additional support measures, including fee reductions, shorter business periods, and clarification of contract renewal rights upon liquidation, should be implemented.Redevelopment-linked business types should be selectively promoted, while expanding incentives for private sector proposals requiring private housing land acquisition. Multi-Property REITs encompassing diverse property types and locations should be encouraged to balance rental and capital gains.

 This necessitates an increase in small urban housing units generating monthly rental income.To stimulate business revitalization and improve profitability, acquisition taxes and comprehensive real estate taxes on rental housing should be normalized. Finally, the introduction of financing methods utilizing both REITs and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities is recommended.

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A Study on the Development of ESG Guidelines for the Establishment of ESG Management in the Construction Industry

Publication Date 2024-09-27

Researchers YoungDeok Kim

This research paper is to develop guidelines for ESG(Environment, Social, Governance) performance indicators of the construction industry. Through this, we intend to effectively respond to the recent spread of ESG management and spread sustainable management of construction organizations.Recently, domestically and internationally, interest in ESG has been growing along with the expansion of discussions on major international issues such as the sustainable growth of countries, industries, and companies, environment, and human rights.The environmental, social, and governance elements of ESG are directly or indirectly connected not only to the construction market but also to all areas of the construction industry, including construction production activities. The impact of ESG on the construction industry is expected to be greater than that of other industries.Therefore, the construction industry needs to understand the recent trends in ESG and continue to pay attention to the background and action plans of ESG management.This study was conducted to provide guidelines for revitalizing ESG management in the construction industry by analyzing major issues and response trends of ESG management, the institutional environment of the construction industry, and demand for the industry.As a result, a total of 17 items and 72 performance indicators were developed, including 21 performance indicators in 6 items in the environmental sector, 30 performance indicators in 7 items in the social sector, and 21 performance indicators in 4 items in the governance sector.This construction industry ESG performance indicator is expected to help construction organizations establish ESG strategies and draw action tasks, and can be used as basic data for a disclosure system that considers the characteristics of the construction industry when ESG disclosure becomes mandatory in the future.

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Revitalizing the Housing Supply Policy Tasks for Stabilization of Real Estate Finance Market

Publication Date 2024-03-19

Researchers CERIK

● The Korea Construction Industry Research Institute selected ① a sustainable supply system, ② a system that responds to changes in the market structure, and ③ stabilization of construction and real estate finance as policy issues to overcome the construction and real estate market crisis in 2024, and proposed policy tasks for each issue. - Establishment of a Sustainable Supply System to Stabilize the Real Estate Market: Revitalizing the  Maintenance Project + Improving Regulations on the Supply of  - Preemptive System Reorganization in Response to Structural Changes in the Housing Market: Responding to Future Demand in  + Housing Stabilization for Ordinary People in  - Establishment of policies to stabilize the finance of construction real estate:  PF crisis soft landing + fundamental improvement of  PF structure ● Policy task areas were set for each of the three major issues, and a total of 24 tasks were derived. - 1) Establishment of a sustainable supply system to stabilize the real estate market: Propose nine tasks in two areas: revitalizing maintenance projects to expand the supply of downtown  and improving supply regulations to create  - 2) Preemptive system reform in response to changes in the housing market structure: Propose eight tasks in two areas: responding to the future of  and boosting demand for market normalization, and reorganizing the system to stabilize housing for the common people in  - 3) Formulating policies to normalize construction real estate finance: Propose seven tasks in two areas: inducing a soft landing of the  real estate PF crisis and improving the  real estate PF structure ● (Preparation of a sustainable supply system to stabilize the real estate market) The contents of each sector's tasks are as follows. - (Activation of maintenance projects to expand the supply of downtown ) First, to promote rapid and smooth urban maintenance projects, second, to revitalize public participatory maintenance projects to promote maintenance projects in areas lacking business feasibility, third, to reorganize the floor area ratio system of maintenance projects to improve old high-density residential areas, fourth, to introduce financial structures and reorganize business structures to raise project costs and contributions, and fifth, to reorganize related systems related to shopping malls to enhance the speed and equity of reconstruction projects - (Improvement of supply regulations to create  volume) First, expansion and early promotion of the third new city in preparation for shortage of housing supply, second, easing supply reduction due to soaring housing construction costs, third, preparing realistic regulations on noise between floors of apartments, and fourth, improving the school facility supply system reflecting the future educational environment ● (Preemptive system reform in response to changes in the housing market structure) The contents of each sector's tasks are as follows. - (Estimulating demand for future response to  and market normalization) First, improving the system for flexible non-apartment market operation, second, reforming the tax system to boost demand and resolve unsold housing, third, revitalizing senior housing reflecting the future demographic structure, and fourth, reorganizing the subscription system to provide opportunities for fair housing - (Reorganizing the system to stabilize housing for ordinary people in ) First, establishing infrastructure in the rental market to eradicate lease fraud, second, rationalizing lease loans to stabilize rental housing, third, improving the public-supported private rental housing system to revitalize corporate rental housing, and fourth, normalizing the private rental business system to stabilize the rental market ● (Preparation of policies to normalize the finance of construction real estate) The contents of each sector's tasks are as follows. - (Inducing a soft landing on the real estate PF crisis in ) First, promoting the resolution of unsold apartments, second, reducing the amount of losses of private businesses (construction companies and financial institutions) by purchasing insolvent workplaces, third, improving the conditions for promoting joint PF projects between the public and private sectors, and fourth, establishing and operating a cross-ministerial cooperation system to improve PF business feasibility - (Improving the structure of real estate PF in ) First, improve the risk concentration structure of construction companies, second, prepare a liquidity supply device for the construction industry to stabilize the development project, and third, present a comprehensive management system for real estate PF projects ● Summarizing the system of three major issues, six sectors, and 24 tasks and the details of each task, as shown in the following Table.
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Direction and Implications of EU's Construction Industry Policy

Publication Date 2024-01-31

Researchers JaeIck Bin

This research paper analyzes the EU Commission’s 'Construction Industry Policy for Green and Digital Transformation and Enhancing Resilience' as communicated in the Commission Staff Working Document, “Scenarios for a transition pathway for a resilient, greener and more digital construction ecosystem”. Regarding industrial policy, the EU Commission only has the authority to support or supplement member states’ initiatives, so industrial strategies related to the construction industry ecosystem are secondary to environmental and digital transformation policies and in which the EU can play a leading role. Taking this fact into account, we will look at the process leading to the formation of the construction industry policy, from the European Green Deal to industrial and trade policies resulting from it, and their contents. The European Green Deal is a policy package and growth strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The Green Deal is announced in the form of a communication, as soon as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took office in December 2019. In an effort to concretize the Green Deal, the European Commission published 'A New Industrial Strategy for Europe', also in the form of a communication in March 2020, which aims at revitalizing global competitiveness and boosting digital and green transformations of EU industries. However, ten days later, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, and not only the EU's new industrial but also new trade policies could not help but reflect the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic. Effectively, declared in February 2021, the New Strategy for EU Trade Policy advocates open strategic autonomy. And issued in May 2021, ‘Updating the 2020 New Industrial Strategy: Building a stronger Single Market for Europe's recovery’ emphasizes the resilience of the industrial ecosystem that embodies the 'open strategic autonomy' expressed in the new trade policy at the industrial level. The update of the new industrial strategy encompasses 14 industrial ecosystems, including the construction industry ecosystem, as targets of industrial strategy. As a sequel to the updated New Industrial Policy, the European Commission publicized the Commission Staff Working Document, “Scenarios for a transition pathway for a resilient, greener and more digital construction ecosystem”. Established under the framework of the revised new industrial policy, EU’s Construction Industry Policy for Green and Digital Transformation and Enhancing Resilience was formed in a bottom-up manner. To identify and co-design pathways for the digital and green transformation of the construction industry ecosystem, the European Commission proposed a collaborative process with various stakeholders including member states’ governments, industrial representatives, social partners, and academia and the proposition was realized in the form of the High Level Construction Forum (HLCF) and thematic cluster group meetings on digital, green and resilience. Furthermore, EU's construction industry policy was introduced from the perspective of the construction industry ecosystem, which consists of the construction industry in a narrow sense related to on-site construction, the manufacturing industry that produces construction products and major materials, and the sector responsible for maintenance, management, and repair of the built environment. EU’s construction industry policy consists of parts focusing respectively enhancing resilience and competitiveness, supporting green transition, supporting digitalization, supporting transition using government procurement, financing for transition support, and research & innovation policy to support transition. The green and digital transformation key performance indicators of the construction industry ecosystem can be divided into general indicators, green transformation indicators of construction activities, green transformation indicators of existing houses, digitalization indicators of the construction sector, and other indicators. The Korean government also aligned with the Paris Agreement (2015) and recognized the seriousness of the climate crisis, announcing the Green New Deal policy in July 2020 and declaring in October of the same year the vision to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In addition, the “Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth to Respond to the Climate Crisis,” was enacted in 2022 to provide integrated considerations for the promotion of green growth and the necessary legal basis for it, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to transition to a carbon-neutral society, the adaption to the climate crisis, the minimization of job loss or damage to the local economy or vulnerable groups that may occur during the transition to a carbon-neutral society, the harmonization of the economy and the environment. In accordance with this framework act, the '2050 Carbon Neutral Green Growth Committee' deliberated in April 2023 on the 1st National Carbon Neutral Green Growth Basic Plan, which is the highest statutory plan containing the current government's will and policy direction for carbon neutral green growth. The bottom-up approach, discerned in the EU's construction industry policy establishment process is equally recognized in the establishment of Korea's first national carbon neutral green growth basic plan. In addition, the approach was also set to be applied to the inspection system of the basic plan’s implementation, by means of which future generations are supposed to participate in the implementation of the basic plan. Further, a comprehensive evaluation system of building energy performance will be applied to improve building energy efficiency. Furthermore, a follow-up management plan for zero energy buildings was also specified in the existing zero energy building certification system. Through the first national carbon neutral green growth basic plan, it was decided to establish a legal and institutional foundation to revitalize the timber construction field which uses wood as a building material that can absorb and store greenhouse gases. In contrast to the EU's policies that target at improving energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in existing buildings, manifested in the Renovation Wave, the Korean policies above-mentioned focus on new buildings. This difference is related to a situation where EU policies, due to the limitations of the EU Commission's position on industrial policy, are forced to reflect the perspective of environmental or energy policy goals rather than the perspective of the construction industry. In the same context, unlike the EU, the Korean government, which does not have institutional restrictions related to industrial policy, is able to establish and implement carbon neutrality and green growth policies from an industrial perspective, which present the Carbon Capture, Utilization, Storage (CCUS) industry as a means of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The EU's construction industry policy aimed at green and digital transformation and resilience need to be monitored with continued interest. This is because the emissions trading system, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, and the EU's trade and industry strategy of pursuing open strategic autonomy can reorganize the global supply chain and have a significant impact both on the global trade environment and on Korea's construction industry ecosystem.
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A Study on Successful Carbon Management Strategies in Korean Construction Companies

Publication Date 2023-12-23

Researchers Hong-Il Lee

This study delves into the crucial area of corporate responses to climate change, with a specific focus on Korean construction companies. The primary goal is to delineate successful response strategies and tasks that enable these companies to effectively tackle the challenges posed by climate change. The research commences with an evaluation of the existing responses of Korean construction firms to climate change, followed by an extensive examination of global standards and guidelines pertinent to corporate climate change responses. Furthermore, the study scrutinizes response strategies and noteworthy initiatives implemented by leading advanced companies. Drawing implications from the analysis, the study formulates essential response strategies and tasks for Korean construction companies to navigate climate change successfully. These identified activities are structured in a five-step model. The initial step involves establishing a carbon emissions reduction roadmap, emphasizing the need for clear timelines, intermediate reduction goals, and target scopes. Detailed guidelines for achieving this objective are presented. The second step underscores the necessity of organizational design tailored for climate change responses. This includes establishing a climate change response committee, a dedicated department at the head office, and placing personnel at project sites. Clear roles, responsibilities, and work cooperation systems are deemed critical for analyzing risks, formulating response strategies, and overseeing implementation. The third step addresses the establishment and implementation of carbon-neutral strategies and major activity plans. Strategies encompass both carbon emission reduction and offsetting, with a focus on distinguishing between different carbon emission scopes. The study outlines key strategies and activities for each sector. The fourth step emphasizes the importance of measuring and providing feedback on performance related to climate change. A proposed performance measurement system includes key performance indicators (KPIs) for major strategies and activities. It is recommended to link KPIs with organizational evaluations and executive compensation systems. The efficient utilization of an information system for data calculation and aggregation is also underscored. The fifth and final step pertains to the verification and disclosure of carbon emission reduction goals and performance. Standard methodologies, including the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, are highlighted for calculating carbon emissions. External verification from a professional organization is suggested for performance indicators, and adherence to recognized guidelines, such as TCFD recommendations and SBTi methodology, is encouraged for the disclosure of climate change response activities and financial impacts.
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